Sun City, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

303
FXUS65 KPSR 091100
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
400 AM MST Wed Apr 9 2025

.UPDATE...12Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably hot temperatures will impact the Desert Southwest
into the weekend with highs surpassing 95 degrees across the lower
deserts starting today and peaking at or just over 100 degrees on
Friday. These temperatures will be around 15 degrees above normal
with some daily record highs likely being broken through
Saturday. Expect continued mostly clear skies and dry conditions
through Friday before we begin to see increased higher clouds this
weekend as winds also increase. Eventually by early next week,
temperatures will fall back to around five degrees above normal
while dry conditions persist.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The heat continues to build across the region as the ridge is now
fully over the region with the highest heights still to our
southwest. H5 heights currently between 582-584dm will gradually
increase today into Thursday before peaking Thursday afternoon at
around 588-589dm. These heights are expected to reach into record
territory for this time of year across southern portions of the
Desert Southwest, and thus resulting in record or near record
temperatures starting Thursday and possibly persisting into
Saturday. NBM forecast temperatures over the next few days have
remained consistent over the past several runs with highs from the
mid to upper 90s today before peaking between 99-103 degrees on
Friday. This should mark our first 100 degree temperatures of the
year, on average three weeks earlier than normal. We will also
see the HeatRisk shift into the Moderate category for a good
portion of the area starting Thursday and last into Saturday,
meaning those more vulnerable to the heat need to take extra
precautions.

The strong high pressure system will begin to get pushed to the
east southeast over the weekend as a Pacific trough gradually
shifts over the Pacific Northwest into California. However, it
will take at least a day to really bring temperatures down as
highs will stay near 100 degrees for Saturday before lowering
into the lower 90s on Sunday. The incoming trough will also lead
to increased winds across our region by Saturday with afternoon
gusts of 20-30 mph likely for much of the area, potentially
creating elevated fire weather conditions. These breezy conditions
should persist into Sunday across the eastern half of Arizona.
The weather pattern is then forecast to become a bit more
progressive for next week as ensembles bring the first broad
trough through our region early in the week followed by another
toward the latter half of the week. Despite the passing weather
systems, moisture will be hard to come by, but at least our
temperatures are likely to be closer to normals for much of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1100Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period as winds
continue their diurnal trends, with speeds generally AOB 10 kts.
Other than a FEW passing high clouds to the north of the region,
skies will be mostly clear through the forecast timeframe.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are currently
being forecast for this weekend, as widespread breezy conditions
develop to go along with hot and very dry conditions. Afternoon
temperatures in the 90s will be common each day across the lower
deserts, with highs reaching around 100 degrees Thursday through
Saturday. Very dry conditions will persist each day, with MinRH
values in the single digits each afternoon and the overnight
recoveries will be poor most nights, with MaxRH values to 15-25%.
The driest conditions will be late week through this weekend
across eastern districts where RH values are forecast to remain
at or below 20% for up to 2 days straight. Winds will be fairly
light through Thursday, with a slight uptick on Friday, and then
widespread breezy conditions are forecast for this weekend.
Widespread wind gusts up to 20-30 mph are forecast for Saturday,
with potential for localized peak gusts greater than 30 mph. The
wind forecast is subject to change, but there is high confidence
in the persistent hot and dry conditions. No rain is expected over
the next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures this week:

Date       Phoenix        Yuma        El Centro
----       -------        ----        ---------

Apr  9   102 in 1989   102 in 1989   104 in 1989
Apr 10   100 in 2018   100 in 1960    98 in 2018
Apr 11    99 in 2023   101 in 1936   100 in 2018
Apr 12    99 in 1936   102 in 1962   103 in 1940

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict
CLIMATE...Kuhlman